The right wing wins the election and the nationalists double their scores

Madrid,

Advantage for the Portuguese right-wing led by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) in the legislative elections. Its leader, Luis Montenegro, is the best place to be prime minister on Sunday evening. The partial results, which covered more than 98% of the vote, showed that the Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition, dominated by the PSD, had 29.8% of the vote, while the outgoing Socialist Party (PS) and its candidate, former minister Pedro Nuno Santos, had the highest 28.7%. Public TV RTP's prediction, calculated in an exit poll with results close to the actual results, was slightly optimistic for the right, with 83 to 91 places for AD and 69 and 77 for PS. The far-right Sega (enough!) won 18.2% of the vote, more than double the previous 2022 elections, and is expected to gain around forty representatives.

According to these figures, the sum of the seats of the Left Majority, the PS and the three parties to its left are excluded. But the AD barely reached half of the elected representatives (116 representatives), even including the Initiativa Liberal (IL) representatives. In the absence of an alternative, Montenegro's ability to lead the country under a minority government will depend on the willingness of the PS and Sega.

No talks with the far right

Several alliance scenarios are possible on paper, but one, the central one, has been ruled out by Luis Montenegro. Under pressure, the PSD candidate put it in three words: “Us or Us» (“No no!”). He would not enter into negotiations with SEGA to gain the support of the far right. Sega chairman and founder Andre Ventura renewed his calls Sunday evening: “AD asked for the majority and the Portuguese told him that this majority was the majority of AD and Sega. Not forming a union would be irresponsible”. But Montenegro's punishment is too firm to return. “He will lose all his credibility.Ricardo Marchi, who was fired during the campaign, was a Portuguese far-right expert and professor at the University of Lisbon.

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Until 2015, there is a preference that was customary in Portugal: after the Carnation Revolution, the second largest party in power alternates between the two major parties, allowing the first to rule. The unwritten rule was broken nine years ago by the formation of an unprecedented parliamentary coalition between the PS, the Communists and the far left (Left Bloc, BE) behind it. Until 2022, Antonio Costa owed his prime ministership to the plural left “”.Geringonza » (“DIY” or “Thing”). Two years after securing 41% of the vote and an absolute majority, the PS accepted its role “Leader of Opposition. And his campaign director, João Torres, said: “PS will not create a constitutional deadlock”However it qualifies the seriousness of its cooperation: “PS is not a natural partner of AD. No one expects us to ease their budget”.

Political science professor Antonio Costa Pinto made a prediction before knowing the results: “The Portuguese like stability. PS is more interested in waiting, letting Montenegro rule for a while than forcing new elections”. The reality is that this situation does not guarantee any kind of stability to a right-wing government. “While the PS can build coalitions on its left and right, the PSD has only one option: count on the support of the PS, Riccardo observes Marchi. This puts him in a very weak position, subject to the goodwill of the ruling PS, which could topple him at any point in the four-year legislature.

The rise of Sega

Established Sega's rise in 2019 can be explained by several factors. “SHis ability to mobilize responds to three key lessonssays Costa Pinto. Corruption, or the perception of it by the Portuguese [renforcée par la démission de Costa à la suite d’une enquête judiciaire contre cinq membres de son cabinet, NDLR] ; promises of law and order and respect; Immigration had been growing for five or six years, as the socialist government facilitated it, mainly to meet labor demand in the agri-food sector.. Not forgetting a change in Sega's economic and social dialogue, where the initial program was very generous.

“The increase in immigration did not cause major problems in PortugalApproves Marchi. But there are neighborhoods where the population has changed significantly, and Sega could easily provide a text “We don't want to become like France, Belgium or Germany.”

Before knowing the election results, Costa Pinto commented on AD's success in the polls in the following terms: “After eight years of socialist government, some centrist voters decided to give the right a chance.. To capture it, Luis Montenegro has a narrow path.