With summer movie season just around the corner, a major studio release is aiming to top the box office on its debut as local theaters and moviegoers celebrate its second National Cinema Day this Sunday.
Gran Turismo
Sony Pictures
August 25, 2023 (wide)
Opening weekend range: $13 million – $22 million
Positives:
- Gran Turismo She has a fan base of video games and intellectual property to help boost interest in her debut. Rapid previews over the past few weeks provided a unique promotional strategy to help with pre-release awareness and word of mouth to the public. The premium screen space that includes IMAX is another plus.
- In the penultimate weekend of the summer season, asset holdings will continue to drive a significant share of the business. Barbie And Oppenheimer They’ll remain important players in their sixth frame, with the latter returning to share screen time at IMAX digital locations and enjoy a planned final weekend of 70mm IMAX showings.
- National Movie Day will take place at more than 3,000 local venues on Sunday, with nearly all films, formats and showtimes priced at an economy rate of $4 a ticket, along with various franchise offerings from exhibitors. Last year’s inaugural National Cinema Day drew more than 8 million moviegoers, resulting in the highest theatrical traffic for 2022.
This year, there is an even stronger line-up of blockbuster blockbusters already playing in theatres, with the likes The Little Mermaid movie, Super Mario Bros. movie, Jurassic Parkand others make a brief return to screens as part of the festivities.
cons:
- Gran TurismoIt, like other recent films, lacks the traditional marketing slickness that would have existed without SAG-AFTRA and the WGA’s continued strikes. Early reviews from critics were also somewhat mixed, with the film’s rating on Rotten Tomatoes standing at 59 percent as of Wednesday morning.
- Lionsgate and Briarcliff Entertainment will release retribution And hill, respectively, this weekend, although minimal marketing indicates limited potential at the box office. from monday, hill He has the ability to sleep more. similarly, Golda It will open free from Fathom Events and Bleecker Street, but in a semi-wide version. Due to the nature of these three releases and the controversial halo effect of National Film Day, projections are not presented at this time.
- While National Film Day could still prove a hit by some measures, there is increased volatility surrounding all expectations this weekend due to the celebration being sited on a Sunday – making it right before the work day for most adults and the school day for over 60. percent. of K-12 students across the country. Last year’s National Film Day had a stronger feature in theory since it was a Saturday over the Labor Day weekend (Monday).
Existing drop ranges call for 78% increase Of the comparative weekend top ten total of $41.4 million in 2022 and 12% decrease From $87.9 million in 2019.
For reference, the top ten took in $42.4 million over the three-day Labor Day weekend when National Film Day was celebrated on Sunday during the first frame of September last year.
| film | studio | 3-day weekend forecast | Projected domestic total through Sunday, August 27 | Predicted number of Friday locations (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| Gran Turismo | Sony Pictures | $17,400,000 | $17,400,000 | ~3800 | new |
| Barbie | Pictures Warner Bros | $15,800,000 | 593,700,000 dollars | ~3900 | -25% |
| blue beetle | Pictures Warner Bros | $12,400,000 | $46,700,000 | ~3871 | -50% |
| Oppenheimer | Universal Pictures | 8,000,000 dollars | $299,200,000 | ~3200 | -25% |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Chaos | Paramount Pictures | 7,500,000 dollars | $99,800,000 | ~3300 | -12% |
| electrolytes | Universal Pictures | 4,800,000 dollars | $16,300,000 | ~3223 | -42% |
| MiG-2: The Trench | Pictures Warner Bros | 4,400,000 dollars | 73,600,000 dollars | ~3000 | -35% |
| Haunted Palace | Pictures of Walt Disney | $2,600,000 | $62,800,000 | ~1800 | -14% |
| Talk to me | A24 | $2,300,000 | 41,500,000 dollars | ~1500 | -27% |
| Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 | Paramount Pictures | $2,100,000 | 168,100,000 dollars | ~1800 | -23% |
All forecasts are subject to revision/terminationn prior to the first confirmation of editorial previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Stage numbers are either studio estimates or unofficial projections if they are prefixed with a “~”.
The above table is not necessarily representative of the top 10 as some studios are not finalizing their weekend location counts and/or intend to report box office returns prior to release.
For more information on this article or to report any corrections, please contact Box Office Pro at [email protected].
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