The Royalists thwart the Pietà Limgarwenrat. Here’s what’s happening now

Thai Pita Limgarwinrat may get another shot at the post of prime minister in the country next week.

But his potential path to power remains unclear, especially if the leader of the country’s Move Forward party does not retract his election pledge to amend a law banning criticism of the monarchy.

Limjaroonrat lost 51 votes short of the majority he needs from the 749 members of Thailand’s bicameral National Assembly to fill the top post in Thursday’s first parliamentary vote.

While he got 311 votes from his eight-party coalition, he only got 13 out of 250 in the Senate – an entity set up by the royal army after a coup in 2014 that has stacked with conservative royalists.

While this development was widely expected, the deep divisions underscore the royalist senators’ distrust of Limjarronrat and his party’s ‘Move It Forward’ anti-establishment agenda, while also highlighting the risk of prolonged political turmoil in the Southeast’s second-largest economy. Asia.

“If there is a prolonged delay in forming a new government, or if the prime minister is ultimately not seen to have a popular mandate, this could lead to widespread renewed protests,” Grace Lim, an analyst at Moody’s Investors Service wrote in a note. research on Friday.

“The ever-rising political tensions could undermine the credibility and effectiveness of Thailand’s institutional frameworks, particularly if these tensions limit the authorities’ ability to effectively implement macroeconomic policy and respond to long-term issues, including aging and job skills,” she added.

Another vote is tentatively scheduled for Wednesday. The 42-year-old Peta, who attended the Harvard Kennedy School, would be able to run for prime minister if nominated again by his eight-party coalition.

Otherwise, Pheu Thai – the second largest party in the eight-party coalition with Move Forward – may field its own candidate among the party’s three candidates. appeared earlier.

They are Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of exiled populist former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. former real estate tycoon Sritha Tavisin and Chaikasim Nitisiri, the party’s head of strategy and political direction.

On Thursday, several senators voiced their objection to Move Forward’s plan to amend Article 112 of Thailand’s Criminal Code, commonly referred to as the Chastity in Chastity Act. Some claim that the wording of the amendment introduced by the party a few years ago seems to suggest that they plan to completely dismantle the law.

Move Forward denied the allegation, and maintained that it only intended to review some parts to prevent it from being misused as a political machine.

“But again until some parts are reviewed, the conservative parties and the older generation cannot accept that. I don’t think they will change their stance on this,” Ponchada Sirivunabud, an associate professor of politics at Mahidol University in Bangkok, told CNBC. Friday.

Proceed with the proposed amendments to the Self-Proprietary Law It said They include a drastic reduction in prison sentences from the current maximum of 15 years to just one year for defaming the King, and six months for defaming the Queen, heir or regent.

Young Thais are deeply disillusioned with the country’s royal military establishment, in part because the self-inflicted law was introduced against many young protesters in 2020. Some 250 of the 1,914 prosecutions linked to the 2020 protests were under the self-inflicted law. According to the Thai Lawyers for Human Rights group – with many minors among these cases.

In an interview with Reuters After Thursday’s vote, Limjaronrat said senators could not vote freely and that he would re-strategize to try to convince them to follow the will of the people.

“A lot of people didn’t vote as well as they wanted to,” he said, without elaborating. “I understand there is a lot of pressure on them and incentives.” I think there is still time to get more votes.”

Late on Friday, MPs from the Movement Forward party sought to prevent junta-appointed senators from participating in the subsequent vote for the premiership, by proposing an amendment to Article 272 of the junta-sponsored constitution.

There are significant obstacles to passing the amendment. Moving forward would need at least 376 votes from the National Assembly, which must include the approval of one-third of the Senate and at least 20% of the votes of the opposition parties.

Campaigning on an ambitious structural reform agenda targeting the country’s monarchy, monopolies and military, the Forward Movement won a surprising majority in the May election – spurred by the votes of young Thais. Along with the Pheu Thai Party, Move Forward has successfully swept aside several conservative politicians after nine years of military rule.

These fundamentally expanded the objectives of the student protests more than two years ago that were sparked by the dissolution of the Future Forward organization – the predecessor entity of Move Forward – which was highly critical of outgoing Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the former military general who seized power in a 2014 coup and conducting Changes to the Thai constitution in 2017.

But Move Forward’s slim majority has made its agenda vulnerable to the machinations of the institutions it seeks to reform, along with the tangled patronage networks that remain despite the ouster of several influential business families in this election.

“Major risks remain with the outcome of the Constitutional Court’s rulings on PETA’s electoral qualifications and whether the MLM’s policy to amend the Royal Defamation Act is constitutional,” Siti economist Nalin Chuchottitham wrote in a note on Friday.

A day before Thursday’s vote, Limjaroonrat was rocked by a new complaint against him to Thailand’s Constitutional Court, accusing the Move Forward plan to reform chastity law amounted to the “overthrow of a democratic government” with the king as head of state.

This came hours after the Election Commission recommended to the same court that Limjaronrat be removed from membership in Parliament, after it confirmed the validity of the decision. complaint He violated the electoral rules by owning shares in a canceled media company that he inherited from his late father.

Both developments bear an eerie parallel to the events leading up to the dissolution of Future Forward which included the court’s disqualification of its Thanthorn leader Juangroongruangkit for failing to publicize his shares in a media company. Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, a law scholar and university professor who was also Secretary General of Future Forward, was also excluded from politics upon the dissolution of the party.

Nothing will change,” said Sirivunabud of Mahidol. “What Tanaturn and Beabuter faced two years ago will happen to Betta again.”