On Sunday, guests of Christophe Deborsu discussed the European Commission’s decision to suspend Russian oil imports on C’est pas tous les jours. According to some experts, the effect of this action may affect civilians, while at the same time having a ridiculous effect on the war in Ukraine.
The 6th embargo against Russia is currently under negotiation between the 27 EU member states. The package includes an oil ban by the end of the year, and many more questions arise: Will the move have a real impact on the war? Doesn’t this have an impact on our portfolios?
Sergei Puntman is pessimistic about the impact of this move on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Echo of Moscow, co-editor of Censored Russian Radio, believes it’s businessmen. “Big oil chasers“As he calls them, to whom this action will cause trouble:”I think it is not for Mr. Putin that he is not going to stop his invasion despite all obstacles. He is very assertive and I would say he is also an idealist in his universe. He wants to win this war at any cost and at any cost.“Can Russia offset these losses by selling its oil to China or India?”This would be a disaster for Russian tankers because oil prices in India are much lower than in Europe“Sergey Buntman says.
Another possibility is to stop Russian gas imports. This question is being debated in the European Parliament, but many oppose it for fear that it will embarrass Europeans. However, ULiège computer engineer Damien Ernst says Vladimir Putin could no longer import Russian gas. “It exports 1,500 terawatt hours to Europe, at a market value of 150 150 billion a year. Gas is not as easily transportable as oil. If we ban gas imports from Russia, he will not be able to find gas buyers. He will definitely lose 75 or 80 billion euros from his state.Damien Ernst explains.
What is the impact on our portfolios?
29% of our oil comes from Russia, which is our most important supplier. There are other alternatives, but they are more expensive. Is this kind of permission not likely to embarrass our citizens? According to Damien Ernst, oil prices will inevitably rise.Especially on diesel“But it’s still hard to say how much of an increase this will be, but he does not rule out the possibility of a 3 € bar one day.
Some politicians, therefore, oppose the ban, citing the case of MEP Marc Tarabella (PS), who did not vote for an immediate halt to Russia’s gas supply: “It will not stop the war right now, but it will stop some businesses, especially in Germany, but not only. There is a risk of pushing Europe into recession, which is very difficult for our citizens who already have a lot“He justifies.
Opportunity to change the model?
The exit from Russian energy dependence may also be an opportunity to return to some sustainable fuels. Wim DeWalfe, Secretary-General of Energy, cites biofuels as an example: “It is already on the market today, but one euro or one and a half euro more than regular diesel“According to him, the excise duty on this fuel should be reduced so that it is an interesting alternative for consumers.
Jean-Pascal Van Ypersele, Professor of Climate at UCLouvain and former Vice President of the IPCC, goes on to say: “Pure energy is something we do not use. “. He cites a recent report by the International Energy Agency that includes ten concrete and overnight measures to reduce our oil and gas consumption: “They say that if the entire EU were to use these measures, it would be less than 220 million barrels a year and 17 billion. I am3 Gas“Jean-Pascal von Yabercell explains.
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