Apple Prices Up, Bitcoin and Ethereum Down: Market Trends Tuesday

Yahoo Finance Jared Bleecker Joins the question about the trend of breaking market trends on Tuesday.

Apple (AAPL) hit a new all-time high, rising nearly 7% on the day. Blecker notes that the possibility of this move being a false breakout is an unlikely, high-risk scenario.

The amount of inventory in the overall market has declined recently. Although volume is currently below average, Bleeker believes it will return to normal during the summer.

Finally, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and Ethereum (ETH-USD) are having their worst day in five weeks, and are also expected to return to normal in the coming months.

For more expert insights and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Ask the Trend.

This article was written by Melanie Riehl

Video version

The NASDAQ S and P 500 closed at a new high as Apple Ss to a record high here with more takeaways in the trading day.

Let’s get straight to Yahoo.

Jared Blecker from Finance.

Jared.

Thank you Josh.

guess what?

I’ll call this a comeback because Apple hasn’t gone anywhere in years.

You can see they are up 7% today, which is the best day in several years.

This is what it looks like today.

I’ll show you the last two years and you’ll see what I mean by this hack.

uh we haven’t been going anywhere uh for a long time here and this only happened recently, uh we can see over the last five years, which includes all the pandemics.

In fact, there was a lot of lateral movement here.

We’ve reached new nominal heights, but now we’re finally discovering what’s so interesting about it.

And by the way, let me show you our fast food plate, which is nicely prepared for us.

This is Apple breaking to a new all-time high, but I did a study so I took a daily signal like today.

So, if you have an apple that gains 3% and breaks out to a new high.

I calculated that this has happened 15 times in the last 20 years, and we only allow one signal per quarter.

What matters is what happens next.

So, after one day, it’s up 4/10 percent, only four times out of 10 is a positive result.

But you start looking at one week, or a quarter, or a year, until you get to 88%.

These are really good statistics even for a stock that is mostly going up because there are long periods of time where that breakout occurs and it finally heads to the upside.

What’s the danger here for this?

Because we’re looking at an average gain of about 30% over the next year.

This is V who’s going to take a look at that in a second here.

But what I want to show you is the Apple chart again.

So we’re looking at five years here.

What is the risk is that this is a false breakout and we will go back lower over the coming days and then head lower.

The story continues

But this is the low scenario, this is the Eris scenario, but it is a low probability.

This is not what I think will happen.

And so for the market, Jared, the biggest takeaway is when you know that a name like Apple is starting to operate again like this.

Yes.

So, for a long time, we’ve been talking about the NVIDIA story, which is the AI ​​story.

Apple has been kind of left out and you can see that in the year-to-date totals.

Even Apple is basically breaking even to start the day for the entire year.

Nvidia rose 144%

NVIDIA’s got all the action.

NVIDIA may be a little tired here.

So it would only be appropriate for another large stock to carry the AI ​​banner for a while.

Uh Apple is the consistent leader in the overall stock market over the past 10 years.

So it’s probably a relief for a lot of people to see her leading again.

Uh I view this as a huge positive for the market.

Okay, Jared Blue, point two.

Yes, we are looking at complacency in the market.

So let me step up here.

We’re at an all-time high for Apple but stock volume has been dropping recently.

Let me give you some statistics.

So I look at the spying volume, which is the spying on the S and P 500 Spider ETF which is sort of a proxy for the overall market.

I’ve seen the lowest volume in recent spying in years, and sometimes what happens in the summer is okay.

May starts in June, and you see a little bit more science, but that’s an outlier.

I don’t want to say extreme, but I want to say more than average.

So we’re seeing below average volume.

What this reminds me of is that a few summers ago in 2022 when we had a big bear market?

Everyone was kind of scared.

Uh, we’ve been seeing the stock for some time.

They managed to rise.

And so there was a kind of feeling in the market that everything was fine.

But I think, you know, the old saying, hedge in May or oops, sell in May and walk away, should be changed to hedge in May and walk away.

I think that’s simply what we’re seeing here.

Finally, I just found my chart.

Here it is 2022, this is the summer rally I’ve been watching.

I simply think that market participants are not very active this summer.

I think they’ve got their spots on their hedges and they’ve kind of gotten away from third and first third, Jerry.

We’ll get to this real quick.

This is about the worst day for Bitcoin, Bitcoin, and Ether in five weeks.

So I’m going to go through the charts real quick.

I showed the Bitcoin panel and the Ether panel at close today and you can see once it’s loaded here, uh, just give me a couple of seconds and we’ll get started.

Uh you can see a lot of dark red on the screen.

Here is Bitcoin.

What I’ve been pointing out from the beginning of the year until now is that we are in a trading range.

So this might be the worst day we’ve had in a few weeks, and probably in about a month or so.

But until we get out of this range to the upside to the downside, it doesn’t mean much.

And you look into the ether.

It’s a very similar scheme.

Here you are.

Just a little bit more trading rate very quickly.

Does that tell me something about risk appetite heading into the Fed, you know, good question.

Um, we’ve been pegged to Bitcoin over the last few years.

As you know, with risk, risk appetite tends to come together.

I don’t know, because you look at copper, it was a bit of a risk appetite that led to a new rally.

Then it fell to a new low.

Take it, put that side by side, the commodities market with the cryptocurrency market, risk is probably a little bit tired right now and you, you kind of put that, with my previous thesis about the market probably being on autopilot until the end of the summer and that kind of plays out. in that.

So I don’t expect a huge change tomorrow at the Fed meeting, but perhaps things will veer a little more risk-on than champagne.

Well, we’ll wait and see, Jared.

Thank you my friend.

appreciate.