Why won't the 81-year-old Democratic president or his 77-year-old Republican predecessor be on the ballot on November 5?
Whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump wins in 2024, both will be the oldest US president to take the oath of office.
Although no man reported serious illness, the risk of death or serious health accident increased over the years.
What about voluntary withdrawal? “It's incredibly ridiculous talk,” says Democratic strategist Rachel Pitkofer.
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Even though polls show his age is putting off voters, Joe Biden continues to say he is the best-qualified candidate.
“What are you supposed to say? 'Oh, he's fine. He's going to do the triathlon tomorrow?' Anyway, he's 81 years old,” says Adam Smith, an influential Democratic elected official. “No one of note ran against him, so that's where we are,” he continues.
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As for Donald Trump, he has been in prison for decades on multiple criminal charges. But Republicans are unwilling to budge now, despite the threat of possible punishment before the election.
How?
If Joe Biden or Donald Trump drop out of the race before the primaries are over, the last word will go to the delegates of the two conventions, or “the 8,567 people you've never heard of,” with very different profiles, explains researcher Elaine Kamarck. At the Brookings Institution, in a recent note.
In the midst of the Vietnam War, President Lyndon B. A roughly comparable scenario was presented to the Democrats on March 31, 1968, when Johnson publicly announced that he would not seek a second term.
But since then, the Republican conventions are held from July 15 to 18, the Democratic ones from August 19 to 22 – always well-marked affairs, the outcome of which is known in advance, they are decided. Previous primaries in each state.
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Elaine Kamarck predicted that if either Joe Biden or Donald Trump dropped out before the summer, it would be an “anything goes kind of convention” for the respective party.
What if something bad happens to the nominated candidate between the convention and the election? It is the “National Committee” of each party which, in an extraordinary session, nominates a candidate.
In the Republican Party, the party is reshuffled and Donald Trump has suggested putting his daughter-in-law Laura on his staff, giving the Trump camp enormous weight in choosing a potential replacement.
WHO?
This is a very open question.
No rule provides that a running mate must automatically replace an incumbent candidate. Joe Biden has already tapped Vice President Kamala Harris to campaign with him, but Donald Trump has yet to officially announce his choice.
In the Democratic Party, Kamala Harris, the first woman and first African-American in this position, may face competition from the young guards, especially some prominent governors: Gavin Newsom (California), Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan), Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania).
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On the Republican side, “the group is smaller,” explains Hans Noel, a political science professor at Georgetown University, because a primary race dominated by Donald Trump has done damage.
He's fueling some of the former president's harshest attacks against someone who's still hanging on, such as Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida who has already given up, or Nikki Haley, the former ambassador to the UN who is loathed by many Trump supporters.
“Nikki Haley might have been an alternative before, but now nobody who likes Trump will support him,” he said.
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Finally, there is one last situation: the emergence of an independent candidate. But so far, no independent candidate, even a relatively popular one, has really posed a threat to the two-party system.
In 1992, Texan businessman Ross Perot, an independent candidate, for example, collected 19% of the popular vote but failed to win any of the votes that actually counted: the 538 electoral votes that decide the outcome by state. Vote.
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