6000 km2 liberated. l’Ukraine announced military victories on Monday, it reached the Russian border and recaptured an area equal to seven times the area of Q in a month. So is the conflict changing? Should we believe in the success of Ukraine? What are the potential consequences in terms of energy? QR l’actu took these questions Nicolas Gossett, researcher at the Royal Defense Institute.
Victory for Ukraine?
Ukraine can win the war. A path indeed seems to be emerging, but the option should be taken with extreme caution, says Nicolas Gossett. “There is indeed an important turning point in this conflict, but we will have to see if this is really solidified in the coming weeks with Donbas withdrawing from the front, but we are not there yet.“.
Putin’s reaction?
With these Ukrainian victories, should we fear a reaction from Vladimir Putin’s pride? However, Nicolas Gosset rejects nuclear-type reaction. “In my view, the nuclear weapon is above all declarative and intended to try to deter Westerners from supporting Ukraine. Now reactions can take other forms. The Russian arsenal is very powerful and may resort to other weapons as some Russian propagandists claim.“.
What is the impact on the ground?
Nicolas Gossett explains that these Ukrainian victories could cause some problems for Russia: “The Ukrainians have cut off Russian supply lines, but Russian arms production remains a problem due to sanctions. European sanctions complicate Russian supply of chips or semiconductors. Besides, we see very few guided missile launches lately. The Russian military is having trouble producing, but delivering on the ground“.
Diplomatic solutions?
There are attempts at a peaceful resolution of the conflict, President Macron notes, along with Chancellor Scholtz, Nicolas Gossett, who went to Moscow with a plea for inadmissibility and the impossibility of moving the file forward. “It is difficult to imagine a healthy process of negotiations, since the moment when Russia mainly presents the demand for the surrender of Ukraine. Another balance of power is needed for future negotiations to take place and come about.“
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