Three-team and four-team tiebreaker scenarios for 2023 postseason

As we head toward Sunday’s regular-season finale, many postseason races are coming to a close, and a number of downright chaotic scenarios remain.

When two teams finish tied for one spot, whether it’s for the division title or a Wild Card berth, the tiebreaker rules are fairly straightforward. But the rules are a bit more complicated if there are more than two tied teams.

Here’s a breakdown of the potential three- and four-team tie scenarios we could see that include the AL West title, AL Wild Card, and NL Wild Card.

Four-way tie scenario (for three positions)

Scenario: Astros, Mariners, Rangers, Blue Jays tie
Result: Mariners, Astros, Rangers IN; The Blue Jays are out

If all four of these teams finish with the same record, the tie will be settled in the following order:

When there is a tie between three teams, and if one team wins the season series against both other clubs, that team gets the tiebreaker. However, this tiebreaker will not be in play if the three AL West clubs end up tied. The Astros won their season series against the Rangers but lost to the Mariners. The Mariners won their season series against the Astros but lost to the Rangers. The Rangers won their season series against the Mariners but lost to the Astros.

As a result, the tiebreaker goes to the team with the best combined winning percentage against the other two clubs. In this case, the Mariners would come out on top and capture the AL West title. (important note: The Mariners haven’t actually clinched this three-team tiebreaker, but for the three AL West teams to tie at 89 wins, the Mariners need to win four of their final five games, which are against the Astros and Rangers. If that happens, they will have achieved the best record in matches among the three clubs.)

The same steps will be used to determine the winner of the second AL Wild Card berth between the Blue Jays and the two remaining AL West clubs. Since none of these three teams have won their season series against both of the other clubs, this tiebreaker will also go to the team with the best combined winning percentage against the other two teams. In this scenario, the Astros would prevail and earn the second AL Wild Card spot. (With no remaining head-to-head matchups between the Astros, Rangers and Blue Jays, this matchup has already been decided.)

A tie between the Blue Jays and Rangers for third place in the AL Wild Card will then be settled using tiebreaker rules between the two teams, starting with head-to-head record. The Rangers won their season series against the Blue Jays by a score of 6-1, so they would prevail in the tiebreaker scenario and earn a third AL Wild Card berth.

Three-way tie scenarios (for two positions)

Scenario: Blue Jays get second wild card; Astros, Mariners, Rangers tie
Result: Mariners and Astros IN; Rangers are out

If the three AL West clubs finish tied with worse records than the Blue Jays, Toronto will earn their second AL Wild Card berth. A tie for the AL West title will be settled first using the same three-team tiebreaker steps mentioned above (Mariners win). A tie between Houston and the Texans for third place for the AL Wild Card would go to the Astros, who won the season series against the Rangers, 9-4.

Scenario: Astros beat AL West; Mariners, Rangers, Blue Jays tie
Result: Rangers and Mariners IN; The Blue Jays are out

In this scenario, the Rangers would earn the second AL Wild Card spot because they won the season series against both the Mariners and Blue Jays. The third AL Wild Card spot will go to the Mariners because they have a better home run record than the Blue Jays. (Seattle and Toronto split their season series, so the standard head-to-head tiebreaker is not in play.)

Scenario: Rangers beat Al West; Astros, Mariners, Blue Jays
Result: Mariners and Blue Jays in; The Astros are out

In this scenario, the Mariners would win their second AL Wild Card berth thanks to their superior combined winning percentage against the Astros and Blue Jays (neither of the three clubs won their season series against each of the other teams). The Blue Jays would win the third AL Wild Card berth over the Astros after defeating them 4-3 in the season series.

4-way draw scenario (for 2 places)

Scenario: D-Back, Cubs, Marlins, tie to Reds
Result: Marlins and Reds In; D-backs and the Cubs are out

There are four teams competing for the remaining two NL Wild Card spots. The second Wild Card spot will go to the team with the best winning percentage against the other tied clubs. That’s the Marlins at .611, better than the D-backs (.550), Reds (.538) and Cubs (.346).

The third Wild Card will then go to the Reds as they have a winning record against the Cubs (7-6) and the D-backs (4-3).

Four-way breakeven scenario (for one position)

Scenario: Cubs, Marlins, Reds, Padres tied
Result: Padres IN; The Cubs, Marlins and Reds are out

Since none of these teams have a winning record against each of the tied clubs, the tiebreaker here is based on winning percentage against the tied clubs. In this scenario, the Padres make the playoffs as their .579 winning percentage against the combine is better than the Marlins’ winning percentage (.542), the Reds’ winning percentage (.531) and the Cubs’ (.394).

Three-way breakeven scenarios (for one position)

Scenario: Marlins get second wild card; D linebacker, Cubs, Reds tied
Result: Reds enter; D-backs and the Cubs are out

The Reds will get their third Wild Card because they have a winning record against the Cubs (7-6) and the D-backs (4-3).

Scenario: D-back gets the second trump card; Cubs, Marlins, Reds tie
Result: Marlins Inn; The Cubs and Reds are out

Although the Marlins and Reds both won their season series against the Cubs, they split their six head-to-head games, meaning the third Wild Card will go to the team with the best winning percentage against the other two tied clubs. In this scenario, the Marlins would receive the third Wild Card because their .583 winning percentage against tied clubs is better than the Reds (0.526) and Cubs (0.421).

Scenario: Cubs get second wild card; D linebacker, Marlins, Reds tie
Result: Marlins Inn; D-back and the Reds are out

Since the Marlins and Reds are 3-3 in the season series, we have to think again about head-to-head winning percentages to determine who gets the third spot in the Wild Card. In this scenario, the Marlins (.583) make the postseason over the Reds (.538) and D-backs (.385).

Scenario: Cubs, Marlins, Padres tie
Result: Padres IN; The Cubs and Marlins are out

The third Wild Card would go to the Padres in this scenario since their winning percentage against the other two tied clubs (.538) is better than the Marlins (.500) and Cubs (.462).

Three-way tie scenarios (for two positions)

Scenario: D-linebacker, Cubs, Marlins tie; The Reds were eliminated
Result: Marlins and D-backs IN; The Cubs are out

In this scenario, the Marlins would receive a second Wild Card due to their 4-2 record against the D-backs and Cubs. The third wild card will go to the D-backs, who are 6-1 versus Chicago.

Scenario: D-Back, Cubs, Reds tied; The Marlins were eliminated
Result: Reds and right-back; The Cubs are out

The Reds would earn their second Wild Card in this scenario after their winning records against the D-backs (4-3) and the Cubs (7-6). The D-backs will earn the third wild card thanks to their 6-1 record against the Cubs.

Scenario: D-Back, Marlins, Reds tied; The Cubs were eliminated
Result: Marlins and Reds In; D- retreats

The Marlins (.583) have the highest winning percentage against tied clubs in this scenario, so they would get the second Wild Card. The Reds will get their third Wild Card because they won the season series versus the D-backs, 4-3.