Measuring a candidate’s chances of success by the turnout at his campaign rallies usually has a significant margin of error. In Rwanda, just days before dual presidential and legislative elections on Monday, July 15, the exercise had little uncertainty.
Philipe Mpayimana and Frank Habizena, formal opponents of outgoing president Paul Kagame, are struggling to rally a handful of supporters. In contrast, the “boss”, who has been in charge of the country for thirty years, relies on an electoral war machine, his party, the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF), which fills stadiums with tens of thousands of fans in all corners of the country. .
We can easily understand that the lack of enthusiasm of some of the declared activists or potential supporters of these two opponents has been reduced to a foil for a pre-determined re-election. As with all previous consultations organized since Paul Kagame’s troops stopped the Tutsi genocide in 1994; Because they drove out or removed racist ideologues “Hutu Power” And the entire politico-military apparatus committed crimes that killed 800,000 people in a hundred days.
In 2000, Paul Kagame, who had already ruled the country since his military victory, was elected to the presidency by a parliament under mandate. Three years later, when direct popular vote was instituted, he received 95% of the vote. The following election in 2010 is its worst score to date: “only” 93% votes for 88% participation rate. In 2017, the bar was raised to 98.63%. It’s hard to imagine another scenario in 2024.
“Certificate Application”
A constitutional amendment adopted by referendum in 2015 (with 98% of the vote) certainly reduced the presidential term from seven to five years. But with a timely legislative stroke, the amendment wiped out all presidential terms held by Paul Kagame up to that point. He can now serve two new five-year terms in power until 2034, if he so chooses.
What could non-party candidate, human rights activist and former journalist trained in France, Belgium and Cameroon, Philippe Mabaimana, and Frank Habineza, leader of the Green Democratic Party of Rwanda (PDVR) demand? After their 0.73% and 0.48% of the vote, the margin of improvement among nine million voters could reasonably be expected to improve their 2017 scores. This will be a sequel.
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