“The war in Ukraine has shocked the commodity markets and changed the way trade, production and consumption in the world,” the company said in a statement on Tuesday.
The authors estimate that “prices will remain historically high until the end of 2024.”
They point out that energy prices have risen in the last two years since the 1973 oil crisis.
“Food raw materials – major producers in Russia and Ukraine – and fertilizers, whose production depends on natural gas, have never been so strong since 2008,” the World Bank said in a statement.
“Overall, this is the biggest inventory shock we’ve seen since the 1970s,” the company added.
“This shock is compounded by the rise of restrictions on trade in food, fuel and fertilizers,” said Intermit Gill, vice president of the World Bank for Equality Development, Finance and Institutions. “Threat of stagnation”
For energy prices alone, the bank expects more than 50% increase this year before the fall in 2023 and 2024.
For non-energy products such as agricultural products and metals, they are expected to increase by almost 20% in 2022 and then decline in subsequent years.
“However, commodity prices are expected to be higher than the five-year average, and in the event of a protracted war against Russia or new sanctions, they will become higher and more volatile than currently expected,” the bank warns. .
He lamented that these price hikes “run the risk of stifling progress in substantial human and economic spending and poverty reduction.”
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