But why did Russia invade Ukraine? Answer with two experts

In other words, there is no problem seeing Ukraine evolving in the same way as its Russian neighbor. “From the moment it chooses its own path, Ukraine’s existence becomes intolerable for Putin and Russian power.The researcher explains. Hence the desire to ‘train’ it like a wild animal that refuses to conform“, he lets go.

Overconfidence

Nine months later, the military operation launched by Russia did not go as planned. “There is a fundamental miscalculationNina Bachatov notes. They should feel at home in Ukraine. They seem to have hoped that by attacking Kiev, Zelensky’s government would be so panicked that it would collapse. This is actually an original error“, he repeats, talking about the blindness of Vladimir Putin and the Russian authorities.

These problems Russia faced initially led it to reconsider its objectives. “Early objectives are not goals that are achievable todayNicolas Gossett abounds. They came up against the wall of reality and the difficulties faced by Russian operations on the ground. Having failed to succeed in ‘dressing up’ Ukraine, the Kremlin has slipped towards its goal of fragmenting the country.“, he adds.

In this way, two long term objectives emerge. On the one hand, to punish Ukraine by losing part of its territory “In a logic similar to the Franco-Prussian War of 1870“, comments the political scientist. On the other hand, to maintain “A permanent gun to Ukraine’s head“If there is a choice of foreign policy that does not favor Moscow.

And now?

First, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict had many roots. It’s not just a regional problem, an identity problem or a foreign policy problem… a little bit of all three. “The question is more complex because we are no longer in a noble war“, Nina Bachagatov analyzes.”This is not just a war of territorial aggression“, confirms Nicolas Cosset.

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The question of finding a way out of the conflict remains open, especially “Putin has a hard time questioning himself“, Nina approves of Pachacato.”We have a kind of propaganda machine that will become almost unstoppable“, Nicolas Cosset worries about him.

Although Possible negotiations are noted, the ULB researcher is now pessimistic about Ukraine’s fate. “Ukrainians are demanding a complete withdrawal of Russian forces, which currently seems unrealistic. Meanwhile, Russia is always in the business of keeping what they have and negotiable the rest. Beyond contact, I doubt any real diplomatic talks will happen in the short term“, he imagines.

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