As in 2017, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will face each other in the second round of the presidential election on April 24, in favor of the outgoing president, without being sure about their vote presence after the collapse of the LR and PS. First round on Sunday.
Polls give Marine Le Pen, following in the footsteps of Emmanuel Macron, that the outgoing president will get 28% to 29% more votes than expected, with 22 to 24% more credit than the RN candidate.
But according to opinion polls released on Sunday evening, the second round promises to be tight. Macron sees an update, but a narrow head (51% -49% according to Ifop; 52-48% according to Elabe; 54% – 46% according to Ipsos and Opinionway; 54.5% – 45.5% according to Odoxa), far from its 2017 score (66.1% – 33.9%).
After several months of weird and small mobilization campaigns, according to poll companies, the figure was 22.23% in 2017, up from 26 to 28%, higher than it was five years ago.
With Insoumis Jean-Luc Mélenchon in third place (approximately 21%), the two parties that ruled France from the Fifth Republic until 2017 confirm the expulsion of the two parties with the worst score in their history: Valérie Pécresse (LR) about 5% of the vote, with a limit on campaign reimbursement. , And less than 2% on Ann Hidalco (PS).
“Traditional parties were pulverized,” summarizes political scientist Jerome Jaffrey.
The right-wing candidate commented that “there was a reflection of effective votes, which was a personal and collective disappointment”.
Given the circumstances of the Macron / Le Pen fight, the campaign between the two rounds raises a number of questions in the polls, from which both will benefit on April 24. Both candidates called for a rally under their respective banners on Sunday evening.
“I want to reach out to everyone who wants to work for France,” Emmanuel Macron declared, calling for the establishment of “a great political movement of unity and action, beyond differences.” The head of state will leave for the field with a trip north on Monday morning and then head to the Grand Estate on Tuesday.
“You will find that I am as firm and in touch as I am in the morning, afternoon and evening,” he stressed.
Marine Le Pen, who wants to be “president of all the French people”, called on Emmanuel Macron to “join” all those who “did not vote” for the “great change that France needs.”
Mலlenchon against Le Pen
The outcome of the second round is partly due to the behavior of Jean-Luc Mன்சlenchon’s voters, who were able to take advantage of the effective voting on the left to the extent that they believe they can hold a second round later on Sunday evening. “We should not vote for Madame Le Pen!»? However, he did not explicitly say that Mr. Macron should be elected.
And will right-wing sympathizers follow Ms Beckress’s decision to vote “conscientiously for Emmanuel Macron to prevent the far right from coming to power”?
“Personally, I will not vote for Emmanuel Macron in the second round,” warned LR primary finalist Eric Ciotti.
At the same time, the blunt spring of the Republican Front will prevent RN work among supporters of ecologist Yannick Jodot (less than 5%), Communist Fabian Russell (2/3%) or D’Anne Hidalgo. Was there a quick call to “defeat the far right” by voting for Macron?
In such a scenario, the outgoing president would have “trouble with the dynamics”: “he has already taken most of the moderate right-wing voters” and “those on the left must go fishing, but they are in the gene – Luc Mélenchon”, which complicates his task, underscoring the political scientist Pascal Perino. .
Gemmer behind Le Pen
Ms Lee Penn should trust the votes of far-right Eric Zemmour, who, after receiving 7% of the vote, called for a “vote for Marine Le Pen” despite her “differences”.
Five years ago, a quarter of the electorate voted against Mr. Mrs. to Macron. Le Pen did not want to make a decision between them, and four million French people wanted to vote empty or zero.
Around 48.7 million voters across the country were invited this Sunday to decide between the 12 candidates for the Elysee Palace in the aftermath of the Govt-19 crisis and the subsequent war-torn campaign in Ukraine.
For these reasons, the presidential candidate entered the campaign late, making some trips, which sowed suspicion in his camp.
However, he improved his previous score (24.01% in 2017), which was only achieved by Fran பிரான்ois Mitterrand on his way to re-election in 1988.
Inspired by Ms Le Pen, on the theme of purchasing power, the state president has raised her voice significantly in recent days against the RN candidate, saying he is “lying to the people” and downplaying his “complacency”. Against Russia.
Small area
Marine Le Pen is also advancing compared to the first round of 2017 (21.3%). The candidate, who has greatly softened his image without underestimating the seriousness of his plan on immigration and institutions, his service ultimately served him despite the doubts and deviations of winter.
But the step towards achieving Elysee is high, while his personality is of concern to the majority of the French population (51%), and only 39% of them consider him to have held the presidency behind Emmanuel. Macron (65%), according to the Jean-Jaros Foundation.
This new Macron-Le Pen duel establishes a split in the national landscape that weakened during the 2020 and 2021 local elections, during which the LR and PS caused opposition, and the Greens made a breakthrough.
Now reduced to a minimum, the right and left are severely hampered by this historic defeat. For these organizations, survival is now in jeopardy ahead of recovery efforts in the June legislative elections.
Fabien Roussel, Jean Lassalle (3%), Sovereign Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (1/2%), anti-capitalist candidate Philippe Poutou (less than 1%) or Lutte Ouvrière Nathalie Arthaud (less than 1%) are below 5% , Should make moderate paybacks for their campaign.
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