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Bizav forecast: private jets market to return at pre-recession level by 2021

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Anastasia Dagaeva
November 3, 2017
Almost a half of the executive jets market has a good chance to return to its pre-crisis year 2008 by 2021. The small-cabin jets will have to wait even 5 years more to reach the pre-2008 level, as stated by Teal Group in its 10-year forecast. 

Teal expects deliveries of 11,434 bizjets with a value of $272 billion between 2017 and 2016, which is 1.7% higher compared to the last decade. «It has been nearly 10 years since the Great Recession triggered a serious business jet downturn. Since then, the market has seen a strange and unpleasant mix of false recovery starts, modest gains, and serious anomalies», said Teal’s analysts Richard Aboulafia, the report’s author. He pointed to a number of positive signs in 2017 — a shrinking pre-owned airplanes inventory and increased utilization of jets.  

«Right now, given macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, we think it’s best to maintain a very conservative outlook», admits Aboulafia. The forecast shows a 2.3% fall in bizjets shipments this year and «modest» single-digit growth up to the end of 2019. This expected to «modestly» rise in the next decade. While return to the pre-crisis level at the top-end of the bizjet market is expected by 2021 (according to Teal for aircrafts over $26 million), the lower part of the executive jets market — with price tags from $4 million to $26 million — will take longer to recover and reach pre-recession level, the report says. 

Teal’s report points at Gulfstream and Bombardier to lead the market for business jets with shares of 31.5% and 28.3% respectively, by value of deliveries, followed by the French manufacturer-  Dassault (17.4%) and Cessna (13.8%). Behind them all is Embraer with 6.6% of the market. The light jets from Honda Aircraft, One Aviation and Pilatus will represent 2.4% share of the bizjet shipments market over the forecast period.
Photo: Dassault Aviation 

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