2024 legislative elections: Emmanuel Macron’s fall in popularity ratings, the rise of the left and a “siege vote” against the administration

According to one poll, 44% of French people would vote to prevent a national rally in legislative elections, but prevent a presidential majority.

According to the Ministry of the Interior, while the participation rate in the European elections reached 51.49%, 64% of French people declared that they wanted to exercise their civil rights during the legislative elections, according to a survey by the independent Odoxa Institute published this Tuesday. , June 25, 2024. Despite this growing mobilization, 56% consider the results to be a foregone conclusion: in their opinion, the National Rally will win.

Significantly, the “siege votes” will be concentrated not against the RN, but against the two main rival groups, the Presidential Majority (44%) and the New Popular Front (47%).

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Sharp drop in Emmanuel Macron’s popularity ratings

With the dissolution of the National Assembly on June 9, 2024, Emmanuel Macron’s attempt to regain his legitimacy among the French is not having the desired effect. The head of state’s popularity rating fell 6 points to 27% in June. In comparison, Prime Minister Gabriel Atal receives 42% positive judgments.

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The “dam vote” was not mainly aimed at the RN

While part of the electorate (41%) intends to vote to counter the progress of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella’s party is not the first target of this strategy. The “siege vote” is actually lower against the RN than between the Presidential Majority (44%) and the New Popular Front (47%). Asked ahead of the European elections, more than a quarter of voters have already expressed a preference to use their vote for “leave (26%)” rather than “support the government (10%), according to a survey by the independent firm Odoxa.” Le Figaro From May 31, 2024.

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Left’s rise in vote count

Since the dissolution of the National Assembly was announced, the political figure who has enjoyed the most significant resurgence in popularity in the polls has been Raphael Glucksman (PS-Place Publique). The latter is viewed favorably by 33% of respondents, behind Marine Le Pen (35%), Jordan Bartella (37%) and Edouard Philippe (40%). Three other main representatives of the new Popular Front stand out: communist Fabian Roussel (5th with 29%), insomniac François Ruffin (6th with 28%) and former Socialist President François Hollande (7th with 27%).

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Mélenchon is a much maligned political figure along with Eric Gemmer

The left-wing black sheep, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has fallen 6 points in public opinion. His popularity rating thus reached 14% (compared to 61% in May 2023). Together with Eric Zemor, the latter became the most criticized political figure in the history of the Odoxa political barometer. The leader of La France insoumise (LFI) announced on June 22 that he was “obviously” ready to become prime minister if the left-wing coalition wins legislative elections.

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29% of French people do not fear the RN coming to power

As many French want the RN to come to power (28%) as those who do not fear it (29%). Combining the latter with the former, the survey identifies 57% of citizens who are not repulsed by the prospect of being managed by an RN, or are happy with it. Only 42% fear it and want one or more parties to win. If there is one point on which the majority of citizens agree, it is this: the RN was given a 56% victory in the legislative elections, 24% for the NFP and 18% for the presidential majority.

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